Predicting Times

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Experience From - Tom Midlam, Gordon Chace , Kevin Setnes , Dave ? , Jay Hodde , Unknown


Tom Midlam

I've read a couple times now that to predict a finish time for your first 100, take your 50-mile time and multiply by three. Well, my 50-mile time is 11 hours, and the cutoff at VT is 30 hours. Uh-oh. I suppose I'll shoot to finish just under the wire and join the elite group of runners who "have made an art form out of flirting with the cutoffs".

Has anyone with a 50-mile best of over 10 hours completed a 100 miler? Does intentionally slowing down early pay dividends later, or are you molasses slow in the dark after 18 hours no matter what? Seems that putting time in the bank early, although contrary to most everything I've read on pacing, would reduce worrying about cutoffs late in the run.


Gordon Chace

I ran Ice Age 50 in 10:49 then the next year ran Kettle Moraine 100, which is substantially the same course and in those years had similar weather, in 27:22. So my ratio was closer to 2.5, and I noticed a few other runners (including overall winner at KM) had ratios of around 2.5. It should be noted that IA/KM have somewhat milder terrain and no thin air at all. The rugged 100's might impose a more dramatic slowdown. Perhaps Kevin Setnes will jump in here, as he knows IA/KM inside out and is also one of the authors of the 3:1 ratio.

By way of comparison to idealized circumstances, I've run about 9:41 for 50 on a track as a split of a 24-hour in which I intended to go almost full effort for 50 then just walk bonus miles afterwards. And my 24-hour best distance is 100 miles on roads without much spare time. So that's also in the ballpark of 2.5:1.

"Does intentionally slowing down early pay dividends later, or are you molasses slow in the dark after 18 hours no matter what?"
(yes, I have an agenda) Do Kettle Moraine! It has an afternoon start so you can confront night-time drowsiness without adding massive exhaustion to the equation. By the time you have massive exhaustion, you have daylight and hopefully better biorhythm. Also less likely to make navigational errors or to faceplant by offsetting night versus exhaustion. And the elites aren't exempt from enjoying the graveyard shift! :-)


Kevin Setnes

I have always believed that the Kettle Moraine 100 is 2.5 times your "normal" Ice Age 50 time. It does hold true with those who have done both - according to the stats. I believe Western States is 3 times your average 50 mile trail time (Ice Age for example). Of course other 50's around the country are more difficult than Ice Age, so that would alter the formula.

What I did indicate in May's UR article on running your first 100 - is that the first timer should plan on possibly being out there for up to three times the duration. Point being, that 100 miles is longer than two 50 miles - time and effort-wise.


Dave ?

In regard to Tom's question - has anyone with a 50M best over 10 hours finished a 100M. I have only completed 2 50M trail runs with both finishes after dark and my finish times for both were just a few minutes past 12 hours. This June I was the last place finisher in the KM100 in 28:12. The 3 times your 50M time is only a rough gauge and only trial and error and your individual experience will tell. Your mind can help your body overcome many things in the late stages of the 100M. Good luck on your training and your first attempt.

Never give up, it ain't over until it's over.


Jay Hodde

Paul asks:

I would appreciate if someone could provide some data regarding anticipated average completion times for ultras based on marathon times. I realize that ultras are varied in terms of terrain, etc. For purposes of this survey, let's assume that the ultras are run on asphalt, with moderate changes in elevation.
I don't know if you can easily do this. The problem is the slow-down factor, which varies from person to person. I'll tell you want I've been able to do in a single season, if that will help. And I'll tell you how I estimate my ETAs for my crew in a 100 miler.

If a runner were to complete a marathon in 3, 4 or 5 hours, what would the expected completion time be for 50 and 100 mile ultras for each of the marathon times?
Between 11/96 and 2/97, I ran a marathon, 50 mile, and a 100 mile.

My times were:

Marathon: 3:23
50 Mile: 7:06
100 Mile: 20:11

The 100, Rocky Racoon, is on trails, but it is a fairly flat and definitely a fast course.

In a 100-miler, this is how I calculate my ETA at various aid stations along the course, and how I estimate my overall finish time.

  1. I look at the first 50 miles in terms of terrain -- climb/descent, etc. Since I know myself quite well, I can guess fairly close when I know the terrain that I am to cover. It's a little bit harder if the trail is unfamiliar, because footing plays a big role in pace. At Wasatch last year, I predicted a 14-hour 50 miler. Got to the aid station in about 13.5.

  2. I can climb most grades at 3-4 miles per hour (in the first half of the 100-miles); I can descend at about twice that speed. Given the terrain, I can at least estimate my pace at any time in the first 50 miles. The chinscraper climb ETA at Wasatch last year was 2 hours (for 5.5 miles). I topped out at 2:03. In the last half of 100-miles, I pretty much assume a constant pace of 3-4 miles per hour, regardless of terrain.

  3. Overall finish time prediction relies on the 50 mile prediction. I take my 50 mile time, double it, and add an extra 50% of the 50-mile prediction. Thus, at Wasatch, my final time prediction was: 14hr + 14hr + 7hr = 35 hours. I finished in about 34:30.

I've found that my 50 mile time is quite predicive of my 100 mile time, in any given race. At Rocky Racoon last year, I went through 50 miles in 8 hours, finishing 100 in 20:11.

AC100: 50M at 12.5 hr, 100M at 31:22
OD100: 50M at 9 hr, 100M at 22:19
LT100: 50M at 12 hr, 100M at 29:32

Is this unique to me?


Unknown

I pulled this algorithm off the web a while ago. It looks like it can at least give you a fairly good guess at what your times should be, and as always, it assumes you are trained for whatever event you are projecting to! (i.e., if you run a 5:00 mile, but do no endurance work, you're not going to run a 2:50 marathon)

I included a few other distances in the chart to make it more useful. Hopefully it will look nice and your mail readers won't destroy the tabstops. If the lines on the chart are too long and wrap, making it look messy, widen your window until they fit. I think the chart should cover everybody. If you aren't on the chart, email me and I'll send you new output with your data.

For C++ people:

I'll include the source code at the bottom. It's been a long time since I looked at this and I'm not sure what the algorithm is that's commented out. "Pace" is a class I use for running programs to handle times, as well as printing them nicely.

Here's the chart:


Fact   1 mi  5 mi  10mi    13.1 mi  26.2 mi   50k      50mi     100k    100mi

----  ----- ----- -----    -------  -------  ------   ------   ------  -------

1.00  3:46  21:31 44:45    59:41    2:06:51  2:33:43  4:28:42  5:53:43 11:31:41

1.01  3:48  21:44 45:12    1:00:17  2:08:08  2:35:15  4:31:24  5:57:15 11:38:36

1.02  3:51  21:57 45:39    1:00:53  2:09:24  2:36:48  4:34:05  6:00:47 11:45:31

1.03  3:53  22:10 46:06    1:01:29  2:10:40  2:38:20  4:36:46  6:04:20 11:52:26

1.04  3:55  22:23 46:33    1:02:05  2:11:56  2:39:52  4:39:27  6:07:52 11:59:21

1.05  3:57  22:36 47:00    1:02:41  2:13:12  2:41:24  4:42:09  6:11:24 12:06:16

1.06  4:00  22:49 47:27    1:03:16  2:14:28  2:42:57  4:44:50  6:14:56 12:13:11

1.07  4:02  23:02 47:53    1:03:52  2:15:44  2:44:29  4:47:31  6:18:29 12:20:06

1.08  4:04  23:14 48:20    1:04:28  2:17:00  2:46:01  4:50:12  6:22:01 12:27:01

1.09  4:06  23:27 48:47    1:05:04  2:18:17  2:47:33  4:52:53  6:25:33 12:33:57

1.1   4:09  23:40 49:14    1:05:40  2:19:33  2:49:06  4:55:35  6:29:05 12:40:52

1.11  4:11  23:53 49:41    1:06:15  2:20:49  2:50:38  4:58:16  6:32:38 12:47:47

1.12  4:13  24:06 50:08    1:06:51  2:22:05  2:52:10  5:00:57  6:36:10 12:54:42

1.13  4:16  24:19 50:35    1:07:27  2:23:21  2:53:42  5:03:38  6:39:42 13:01:37

1.14  4:18  24:32 51:01    1:08:03  2:24:37  2:55:15  5:06:20  6:43:14 13:08:32

1.15  4:20  24:45 51:28    1:08:39  2:25:53  2:56:47  5:09:01  6:46:47 13:15:27

1.16  4:22  24:58 51:55    1:09:15  2:27:09  2:58:19  5:11:42  6:50:19 13:22:22

1.17  4:25  25:11 52:22    1:09:50  2:28:25  2:59:51  5:14:23  6:53:51 13:29:17

1.18  4:27  25:24 52:49    1:10:26  2:29:42  3:01:24  5:17:04  6:57:23 13:36:12

1.19  4:29  25:37 53:16    1:11:02  2:30:58  3:02:56  5:19:46  7:00:55 13:43:07

1.2   4:31  25:49 53:43    1:11:38  2:32:14  3:04:28  5:22:27  7:04:28 13:50:02

1.21  4:34  26:02 54:09    1:12:14  2:33:30  3:06:00  5:25:08  7:08:00 13:56:57

1.22  4:36  26:15 54:36    1:12:49  2:34:46  3:07:32  5:27:49  7:11:32 14:03:52

1.23  4:38  26:28 55:03    1:13:25  2:36:02  3:09:05  5:30:31  7:15:04 14:10:47

1.24  4:40  26:41 55:30    1:14:01  2:37:18  3:10:37  5:33:12  7:18:37 14:17:42

1.25  4:43  26:54 55:57    1:14:37  2:38:34  3:12:09  5:35:53  7:22:09 14:24:37

1.26  4:45  27:07 56:24    1:15:13  2:39:51  3:13:41  5:38:34  7:25:41 14:31:32

1.27  4:47  27:20 56:51    1:15:49  2:41:07  3:15:14  5:41:16  7:29:13 14:38:27

1.28  4:50  27:33 57:17    1:16:24  2:42:23  3:16:46  5:43:57  7:32:46 14:45:22

1.29  4:52  27:46 57:44    1:17:00  2:43:39  3:18:18  5:46:38  7:36:18 14:52:17

1.3   4:54  27:59 58:11    1:17:36  2:44:55  3:19:50  5:49:19  7:39:50 14:59:12

1.31  4:56  28:12 58:38    1:18:12  2:46:11  3:21:23  5:52:00  7:43:22 15:06:07

1.32  4:59  28:24 59:05    1:18:48  2:47:27  3:22:55  5:54:42  7:46:55 15:13:02

1.33  5:01  28:37 59:32    1:19:23  2:48:43  3:24:27  5:57:23  7:50:27 15:19:57

1.34  5:03  28:50 59:59    1:19:59  2:50:00  3:25:59  6:00:04  7:53:59 15:26:52

1.35  5:05  29:03 1:00:25  1:20:35  2:51:16  3:27:32  6:02:45  7:57:31 15:33:47

1.36  5:08  29:16 1:00:52  1:21:11  2:52:32  3:29:04  6:05:27  8:01:03 15:40:42

1.37  5:10  29:29 1:01:19  1:21:47  2:53:48  3:30:36  6:08:08  8:04:36 15:47:37

1.38  5:12  29:42 1:01:46  1:22:23  2:55:04  3:32:08  6:10:49  8:08:08 15:54:32

1.39  5:14  29:55 1:02:13  1:22:58  2:56:20  3:33:41  6:13:30  8:11:40 16:01:27

1.4   5:17  30:08 1:02:40  1:23:34  2:57:36  3:35:13  6:16:12  8:15:12 16:08:22

1.41  5:19  30:21 1:03:07  1:24:10  2:58:52  3:36:45  6:18:53  8:18:45 16:15:17

1.42  5:21  30:34 1:03:33  1:24:46  3:00:08  3:38:17  6:21:34  8:22:17 16:22:12

1.43  5:24  30:47 1:04:00  1:25:22  3:01:25  3:39:49  6:24:15  8:25:49 16:29:07

1.44  5:26  30:59 1:04:27  1:25:57  3:02:41  3:41:22  6:26:56  8:29:21 16:36:02

1.45  5:28  31:12 1:04:54  1:26:33  3:03:57  3:42:54  6:29:38  8:32:54 16:42:57

1.46  5:30  31:25 1:05:21  1:27:09  3:05:13  3:44:26  6:32:19  8:36:26 16:49:52

1.47  5:33  31:38 1:05:48  1:27:45  3:06:29  3:45:58  6:35:00  8:39:58 16:56:47

1.48  5:35  31:51 1:06:15  1:28:21  3:07:45  3:47:31  6:37:41  8:43:30 17:03:42

1.49  5:37  32:04 1:06:42  1:28:57  3:09:01  3:49:03  6:40:23  8:47:03 17:10:37

1.5   5:39  32:17 1:07:08  1:29:32  3:10:17  3:50:35  6:43:04  8:50:35 17:17:32

1.51  5:42  32:30 1:07:35  1:30:08  3:11:34  3:52:07  6:45:45  8:54:07 17:24:27

1.52  5:44  32:43 1:08:02  1:30:44  3:12:50  3:53:40  6:48:26  8:57:39 17:31:22

1.53  5:46  32:56 1:08:29  1:31:20  3:14:06  3:55:12  6:51:07  9:01:11 17:38:17

1.54  5:48  33:09 1:08:56  1:31:56  3:15:22  3:56:44  6:53:49  9:04:44 17:45:12

1.55  5:51  33:22 1:09:23  1:32:31  3:16:38  3:58:16  6:56:30  9:08:16 17:52:07

1.56  5:53  33:34 1:09:50  1:33:07  3:17:54  3:59:49  6:59:11  9:11:48 17:59:02

1.57  5:55  33:47 1:10:16  1:33:43  3:19:10  4:01:21  7:01:52  9:15:20 18:05:57

1.58  5:58  34:00 1:10:43  1:34:19  3:20:26  4:02:53  7:04:34  9:18:53 18:12:52

1.59  6:00  34:13 1:11:10  1:34:55  3:21:43  4:04:25  7:07:15  9:22:25 18:19:47

1.6   6:02  34:26 1:11:37  1:35:31  3:22:59  4:05:57  7:09:56  9:25:57 18:26:42

1.61  6:04  34:39 1:12:04  1:36:06  3:24:15  4:07:30  7:12:37  9:29:29 18:33:37

1.62  6:07  34:52 1:12:31  1:36:42  3:25:31  4:09:02  7:15:19  9:33:02 18:40:32

1.63  6:09  35:05 1:12:58  1:37:18  3:26:47  4:10:34  7:18:00  9:36:34 18:47:28

1.64  6:11  35:18 1:13:24  1:37:54  3:28:03  4:12:06  7:20:41  9:40:06 18:54:23

1.65  6:13  35:31 1:13:51  1:38:30  3:29:19  4:13:39  7:23:22  9:43:38 19:01:18

1.66  6:16  35:44 1:14:18  1:39:05  3:30:35  4:15:11  7:26:03  9:47:11 19:08:13

1.67  6:18  35:57 1:14:45  1:39:41  3:31:51  4:16:43  7:28:45  9:50:43 19:15:08

1.68  6:20  36:09 1:15:12  1:40:17  3:33:08  4:18:15  7:31:26  9:54:15 19:22:03

1.69  6:22  36:22 1:15:39  1:40:53  3:34:24  4:19:48  7:34:07  9:57:47 19:28:58



Fact   1 mi  5 mi   10mi   13.1 mi  26.2 mi   50k      50mi     100k     100mi

----  ----  ----- ------   -------  -------  ------   -------  -------  --------



1.7   6:25  36:35 1:16:06  1:41:29  3:35:40  4:21:20  7:36:48  10:01:19 19:35:53

1.71  6:27  36:48 1:16:32  1:42:05  3:36:56  4:22:52  7:39:30  10:04:52 19:42:48

1.72  6:29  37:01 1:16:59  1:42:40  3:38:12  4:24:24  7:42:11  10:08:24 19:49:43

1.73  6:32  37:14 1:17:26  1:43:16  3:39:28  4:25:57  7:44:52  10:11:56 19:56:38

1.74  6:34  37:27 1:17:53  1:43:52  3:40:44  4:27:29  7:47:33  10:15:28 20:03:33

1.75  6:36  37:40 1:18:20  1:44:28  3:42:00  4:29:01  7:50:15  10:19:01 20:10:28

1.76  6:38  37:53 1:18:47  1:45:04  3:43:17  4:30:33  7:52:56  10:22:33 20:17:23

1.77  6:41  38:06 1:19:14  1:45:39  3:44:33  4:32:06  7:55:37  10:26:05 20:24:18

1.78  6:43  38:19 1:19:40  1:46:15  3:45:49  4:33:38  7:58:18  10:29:37 20:31:13

1.79  6:45  38:32 1:20:07  1:46:51  3:47:05  4:35:10  8:00:59  10:33:10 20:38:08

1.8   6:47  38:44 1:20:34  1:47:27  3:48:21  4:36:42  8:03:41  10:36:42 20:45:03

1.81  6:50  38:57 1:21:01  1:48:03  3:49:37  4:38:14  8:06:22  10:40:14 20:51:58

1.82  6:52  39:10 1:21:28  1:48:39  3:50:53  4:39:47  8:09:03  10:43:46 20:58:53

1.83  6:54  39:23 1:21:55  1:49:14  3:52:09  4:41:19  8:11:44  10:47:19 21:05:48

1.84  6:56  39:36 1:22:22  1:49:50  3:53:25  4:42:51  8:14:26  10:50:51 21:12:43

1.85  6:59  39:49 1:22:48  1:50:26  3:54:42  4:44:23  8:17:07  10:54:23 21:19:38

1.86  7:01  40:02 1:23:15  1:51:02  3:55:58  4:45:56  8:19:48  10:57:55 21:26:33

1.87  7:03  40:15 1:23:42  1:51:38  3:57:14  4:47:28  8:22:29  11:01:27 21:33:28

1.88  7:06  40:28 1:24:09  1:52:13  3:58:30  4:49:00  8:25:10  11:05:00 21:40:23

1.89  7:08  40:41 1:24:36  1:52:49  3:59:46  4:50:32  8:27:52  11:08:32 21:47:18

1.9   7:10  40:54 1:25:03  1:53:25  4:01:02  4:52:05  8:30:33  11:12:04 21:54:13

1.91  7:12  41:07 1:25:30  1:54:01  4:02:18  4:53:37  8:33:14  11:15:36 22:01:08

1.92  7:15  41:19 1:25:56  1:54:37  4:03:34  4:55:09  8:35:55  11:19:09 22:08:03

1.93  7:17  41:32 1:26:23  1:55:13  4:04:51  4:56:41  8:38:37  11:22:41 22:14:58

1.94  7:19  41:45 1:26:50  1:55:48  4:06:07  4:58:14  8:41:18  11:26:13 22:21:53

1.95  7:21  41:58 1:27:17  1:56:24  4:07:23  4:59:46  8:43:59  11:29:45 22:28:48

1.96  7:24  42:11 1:27:44  1:57:00  4:08:39  5:01:18  8:46:40  11:33:18 22:35:43

1.97  7:26  42:24 1:28:11  1:57:36  4:09:55  5:02:50  8:49:22  11:36:50 22:42:38

1.98  7:28  42:37 1:28:38  1:58:12  4:11:11  5:04:23  8:52:03  11:40:22 22:49:33

1.99  7:30  42:50 1:29:04  1:58:47  4:12:27  5:05:55  8:54:44  11:43:54 22:56:28

2.00  7:33  43:03 1:29:31  1:59:23  4:13:43  5:07:27  8:57:25  11:47:27 23:03:23

2.01  7:35  43:16 1:29:58  1:59:59  4:15:00  5:08:59  9:00:06  11:50:59 23:10:18

2.02  7:37  43:29 1:30:25  2:00:35  4:16:16  5:10:31  9:02:48  11:54:31 23:17:13

2.03  7:40  43:42 1:30:52  2:01:11  4:17:32  5:12:04  9:05:29  11:58:03 23:24:08

2.04  7:42  43:54 1:31:19  2:01:47  4:18:48  5:13:36  9:08:10  12:01:35 23:31:03

2.05  7:44  44:07 1:31:46  2:02:22  4:20:04  5:15:08  9:10:51  12:05:08 23:37:58

2.06  7:46  44:20 1:32:12  2:02:58  4:21:20  5:16:40  9:13:33  12:08:40 23:44:53

2.07  7:49  44:33 1:32:39  2:03:34  4:22:36  5:18:13  9:16:14  12:12:12 23:51:48

2.08  7:51  44:46 1:33:06  2:04:10  4:23:52  5:19:45  9:18:55  12:15:44 23:58:43

2.09  7:53  44:59 1:33:33  2:04:46  4:25:08  5:21:17  9:21:36  12:19:17 24:05:38

2.1   7:55  45:12 1:34:00  2:05:22  4:26:25  5:22:49  9:24:18  12:22:49 24:12:33

2.11  7:58  45:25 1:34:27  2:05:57  4:27:41  5:24:22  9:26:59  12:26:21 24:19:28

2.12  8:00  45:38 1:34:54  2:06:33  4:28:57  5:25:54  9:29:40  12:29:53 24:26:23

2.13  8:02  45:51 1:35:20  2:07:09  4:30:13  5:27:26  9:32:21  12:33:26 24:33:18

2.14  8:04  46:04 1:35:47  2:07:45  4:31:29  5:28:58  9:35:02  12:36:58 24:40:13

2.15  8:07  46:17 1:36:14  2:08:21  4:32:45  5:30:31  9:37:44  12:40:30 24:47:08

2.16  8:09  46:29 1:36:41  2:08:56  4:34:01  5:32:03  9:40:25  12:44:02 24:54:03

2.17  8:11  46:42 1:37:08  2:09:32  4:35:17  5:33:35  9:43:06  12:47:35 25:00:59

2.18  8:13  46:55 1:37:35  2:10:08  4:36:34  5:35:07  9:45:47  12:51:07 25:07:54

2.19  8:16  47:08 1:38:02  2:10:44  4:37:50  5:36:40  9:48:29  12:54:39 25:14:49

2.2   8:18  47:21 1:38:29  2:11:20  4:39:06  5:38:12  9:51:10  12:58:11 25:21:44

2.21  8:20  47:34 1:38:55  2:11:56  4:40:22  5:39:44  9:53:51  13:01:43 25:28:39

2.22  8:23  47:47 1:39:22  2:12:31  4:41:38  5:41:16  9:56:32  13:05:16 25:35:34

2.23  8:25  48:00 1:39:49  2:13:07  4:42:54  5:42:48  9:59:14  13:08:48 25:42:29

2.24  8:27  48:13 1:40:16  2:13:43  4:44:10  5:44:21  10:01:55 13:12:20 25:49:24

2.25  8:29  48:26 1:40:43  2:14:19  4:45:26  5:45:53  10:04:36 13:15:52 25:56:19

2.26  8:32  48:39 1:41:10  2:14:55  4:46:43  5:47:25  10:07:17 13:19:25 26:03:14

2.27  8:34  48:52 1:41:37  2:15:30  4:47:59  5:48:57  10:09:58 13:22:57 26:10:09

2.28  8:36  49:04 1:42:03  2:16:06  4:49:15  5:50:30  10:12:40 13:26:29 26:17:04

2.29  8:38  49:17 1:42:30  2:16:42  4:50:31  5:52:02  10:15:21 13:30:01 26:23:59

2.3   8:41  49:30 1:42:57  2:17:18  4:51:47  5:53:34  10:18:02 13:33:34 26:30:54

2.31  8:43  49:43 1:43:24  2:17:54  4:53:03  5:55:06  10:20:43 13:37:06 26:37:49

2.32  8:45  49:56 1:43:51  2:18:30  4:54:19  5:56:39  10:23:25 13:40:38 26:44:44

2.33  8:47  50:09 1:44:18  2:19:05  4:55:35  5:58:11  10:26:06 13:44:10 26:51:39

2.34  8:50  50:22 1:44:45  2:19:41  4:56:51  5:59:43  10:28:47 13:47:43 26:58:34

2.35  8:52  50:35 1:45:11  2:20:17  4:58:08  6:01:15  10:31:28 13:51:15 27:05:29

2.36  8:54  50:48 1:45:38  2:20:53  4:59:24  6:02:48  10:34:09 13:54:47 27:12:24

2.37  8:57  51:01 1:46:05  2:21:29  5:00:40  6:04:20  10:36:51 13:58:19 27:19:19

2.38  8:59  51:14 1:46:32  2:22:04  5:01:56  6:05:52  10:39:32 14:01:51 27:26:14

2.39  9:01  51:26 1:46:59  2:22:40  5:03:12  6:07:24  10:42:13 14:05:24 27:33:09

2.4   9:03  51:39 1:47:26  2:23:16  5:04:28  6:08:56  10:44:54 14:08:56 27:40:04

2.41  9:06  51:52 1:47:53  2:23:52  5:05:44  6:10:29  10:47:36 14:12:28 27:46:59

2.42  9:08  52:05 1:48:19  2:24:28  5:07:00  6:12:01  10:50:17 14:16:00 27:53:54

2.43  9:10  52:18 1:48:46  2:25:04  5:08:17  6:13:33  10:52:58 14:19:33 28:00:49

2.44  9:12  52:31 1:49:13  2:25:39  5:09:33  6:15:05  10:55:39 14:23:05 28:07:44

2.45  9:15  52:44 1:49:40  2:26:15  5:10:49  6:16:38  10:58:21 14:26:37 28:14:39

2.46  9:17  52:57 1:50:07  2:26:51  5:12:05  6:18:10  11:01:02 14:30:09 28:21:34

2.47  9:19  53:10 1:50:34  2:27:27  5:13:21  6:19:42  11:03:43 14:33:42 28:28:29

2.48  9:21  53:23 1:51:01  2:28:03  5:14:37  6:21:14  11:06:24 14:37:14 28:35:24

2.49  9:24  53:36 1:51:27  2:28:38  5:15:53  6:22:47  11:09:05 14:40:46 28:42:19

2.5   9:26  53:49 1:51:54  2:29:14  5:17:09  6:24:19  11:11:47 14:44:18 28:49:14

2.51  9:28  54:01 1:52:21  2:29:50  5:18:25  6:25:51  11:14:28 14:47:51 28:56:09

2.52  9:31  54:14 1:52:48  2:30:26  5:19:42  6:27:23  11:17:09 14:51:23 29:03:04

2.53  9:33  54:27 1:53:15  2:31:02  5:20:58  6:28:56  11:19:50 14:54:55 29:09:59

2.54  9:35  54:40 1:53:42  2:31:38  5:22:14  6:30:28  11:22:32 14:58:27 29:16:54

2.55  9:37  54:53 1:54:09  2:32:13  5:23:30  6:32:00  11:25:13 15:01:59 29:23:49

2.56  9:40  55:06 1:54:35  2:32:49  5:24:46  6:33:32  11:27:54 15:05:32 29:30:44

2.57  9:42  55:19 1:55:02  2:33:25  5:26:02  6:35:05  11:30:35 15:09:04 29:37:39

2.58  9:44  55:32 1:55:29  2:34:01  5:27:18  6:36:37  11:33:17 15:12:36 29:44:34

2.59  9:46  55:45 1:55:56  2:34:37  5:28:34  6:38:09  11:35:58 15:16:08 29:51:29

2.6   9:49  55:58 1:56:23  2:35:12  5:29:51  6:39:41  11:38:39 15:19:41 29:58:24

2.61  9:51  56:11 1:56:50  2:35:48  5:31:07  6:41:13  11:41:20 15:23:13 30:05:19

2.62  9:53  56:24 1:57:17  2:36:24  5:32:23  6:42:46  11:44:01 15:26:45 30:12:14

2.63  9:55  56:36 1:57:43  2:37:00  5:33:39  6:44:18  11:46:43 15:30:17 30:19:09

2.64  9:58  56:49 1:58:10  2:37:36  5:34:55  6:45:50  11:49:24 15:33:50 30:26:04

2.65  10:00 57:02 1:58:37  2:38:12  5:36:11  6:47:22  11:52:05 15:37:22 30:32:59

2.66  10:02 57:15 1:59:04  2:38:47  5:37:27  6:48:55  11:54:46 15:40:54 30:39:54

2.67  10:05 57:28 1:59:31  2:39:23  5:38:43  6:50:27  11:57:28 15:44:26 30:46:49

2.68  10:07 57:41 1:59:58  2:39:59  5:40:00  6:51:59  12:00:09 15:47:59 30:53:44

2.69  10:09 57:54 2:00:25  2:40:35  5:41:16  6:53:31  12:02:50 15:51:31 31:00:39

2.7   10:11 58:07 2:00:51  2:41:11  5:42:32  6:55:04  12:05:31 15:55:03 31:07:34

2.71  10:14 58:20 2:01:18  2:41:46  5:43:48  6:56:36  12:08:12 15:58:35 31:14:30

2.72  10:16 58:33 2:01:45  2:42:22  5:45:04  6:58:08  12:10:54 16:02:07 31:21:25

2.73  10:18 58:46 2:02:12  2:42:58  5:46:20  6:59:40  12:13:35 16:05:40 31:28:20

2.74  10:20 58:59 2:02:39  2:43:34  5:47:36  7:01:13  12:16:16 16:09:12 31:35:15

2.75  10:23 59:11 2:03:06  2:44:10  5:48:52  7:02:45  12:18:57 16:12:44 31:42:10

2.76  10:25 59:24 2:03:33  2:44:46  5:50:08  7:04:17  12:21:39 16:16:16 31:49:05

2.77  10:27 59:37 2:03:59  2:45:21  5:51:25  7:05:49  12:24:20 16:19:49 31:56:00

2.78  10:29 59:50 2:04:26  2:45:57  5:52:41  7:07:22  12:27:01 16:23:21 32:02:55


Fact   1 mi  5 mi     10mi     13.1 mi  26.2 mi  50k      50mi     100k     100mi

----  ----- ------   ------   -------  -------  ------   -------  -------  --------

2.79  10:32 1:00:03  2:04:53  2:46:33  5:53:57  7:08:54  12:29:42 16:26:53 32:09:50

2.8   10:34 1:00:16  2:05:20  2:47:09  5:55:13  7:10:26  12:32:24 16:30:25 32:16:45

2.81  10:36 1:00:29  2:05:47  2:47:45  5:56:29  7:11:58  12:35:05 16:33:58 32:23:40

2.82  10:39 1:00:42  2:06:14  2:48:20  5:57:45  7:13:30  12:37:46 16:37:30 32:30:35

2.83  10:41 1:00:55  2:06:41  2:48:56  5:59:01  7:15:03  12:40:27 16:41:02 32:37:30

2.84  10:43 1:01:08  2:07:07  2:49:32  6:00:17  7:16:35  12:43:08 16:44:34 32:44:25

2.85  10:45 1:01:21  2:07:34  2:50:08  6:01:34  7:18:07  12:45:50 16:48:07 32:51:20

2.86  10:48 1:01:34  2:08:01  2:50:44  6:02:50  7:19:39  12:48:31 16:51:39 32:58:15

2.87  10:50 1:01:46  2:08:28  2:51:20  6:04:06  7:21:12  12:51:12 16:55:11 33:05:10

2.88  10:52 1:01:59  2:08:55  2:51:55  6:05:22  7:22:44  12:53:53 16:58:43 33:12:05

2.89  10:54 1:02:12  2:09:22  2:52:31  6:06:38  7:24:16  12:56:35 17:02:15 33:19:00

2.9   10:57 1:02:25  2:09:49  2:53:07  6:07:54  7:25:48  12:59:16 17:05:48 33:25:55

2.91  10:59 1:02:38  2:10:16  2:53:43  6:09:10  7:27:21  13:01:57 17:09:20 33:32:50

2.92  11:01 1:02:51  2:10:42  2:54:19  6:10:26  7:28:53  13:04:38 17:12:52 33:39:45

2.93  11:03 1:03:04  2:11:09  2:54:54  6:11:43  7:30:25  13:07:20 17:16:24 33:46:40

2.94  11:06 1:03:17  2:11:36  2:55:30  6:12:59  7:31:57  13:10:01 17:19:57 33:53:35

2.95  11:08 1:03:30  2:12:03  2:56:06  6:14:15  7:33:30  13:12:42 17:23:29 34:00:30

2.96  11:10 1:03:43  2:12:30  2:56:42  6:15:31  7:35:02  13:15:23 17:27:01 34:07:25

2.97  11:13 1:03:56  2:12:57  2:57:18  6:16:47  7:36:34  13:18:04 17:30:33 34:14:20

2.98  11:15 1:04:09  2:13:24  2:57:54  6:18:03  7:38:06  13:20:46 17:34:06 34:21:15

2.99  11:17 1:04:21  2:13:50  2:58:29  6:19:19  7:39:38  13:23:27 17:37:38 34:28:10

The source code for those programming inclined:
(These were thrown together rather quickly, hence the messiness)


//

//file:cammod.C

//

#include 

#include 

#include "Pace.h"

#include 

#include 

main()

{



   double fac, intime, indist, time;

   float distArray[9] = {1.0, 5.0, 10.0,

                     13.109,26.219,31.1,50.0,

                     62.2,100.0};

   ofstream outFile;

   outFile.open("cammod.out");

   intime = 115.0;

   indist = .497;

   float dist = .933;

   double pow1 = pow(indist, .7905);

   double pow2;


   for (int i = 100; i < 300; i++)

   {

      fac = i / 100.0;

      outFile << fac;

      for (int i = 0; i < 9; i++)

      {

         dist = distArray[i];

         pow2 = pow(dist, .7905);

         time = fac*(3600./(13.49681 -

.048865*dist+2.438936/pow2))*dist;

         Pace Pace1(0,time);

         outFile << "\t" << Pace1;

      }

      outFile << endl;

   }

/*

   fac = intime/((3600.0/(13.49681 - .048865 * indist + 2.438936/

         pow1))*indist);

   time = fac*(3600./(13.49681 - .048865*dist+2.438936/pow2))*dist;

*/

}



//

//file: Pace.h

//

#include 

class Pace

{

   friend ostream& operator<<(ostream&, Pace&);

   private:

      int hour;

      int min;

      int sec;



   public:

      Pace(int m, int s);

      int returnMin() {return ((hour*60) + min);}

      int returnSec() {return sec;}



};



//

//file:Pace.h

//

#include "Pace.h"

#include 



Pace::Pace(int m, int s)

{

   hour = min = sec = 0;



   if (s >= 60)

   {

      sec = s % 60;

      min = s / 60;

   }

   else

   {

      sec = s;

   }



   min += m;



   if (min >= 60)

   {

      hour = min / 60;

      min = min % 60;

   }

}



ostream& operator<<(ostream& out, Pace& pace)

{

   if (pace.hour > 0)

   {

      out << pace.hour << ":" << setw(2) << setfill('0') << pace.min <<

":" <<

        setw(2) << setfill('0') << pace.sec;

   }

   else

   {

      out << pace.min << ":" << setw(2) << setfill('0') << pace.sec;

   }

   return out;

}